A rebound in oil demand in Asia and Europe's search to fill the Russian gap also had an impact on the market for the m25 x 1.5
French finance minister Bruno Lemaire said on Sunday that France was in talks with the United Arab Emirates to replace Russian oil purchases. After the European Union imposed a ban on Russian crude oil, French oil procurement will stop.
On the other hand, the international crude oil supply is becoming increasingly tight. As Asia enters a period of economic activity, Saudi Arabia's oil price for the Asian market has risen more than expected. Oil prices began to climb as shipments increased in July.
Aramco raised the price of its main Arab light crude oil for Asian customers by the US $2.10 to the US $6.50 per barrel in June, higher than the benchmark price is used. A survey of refiners and traders shows that the market expects oil prices to rise by $1.50.
Saudi Aramco raises oil prices as the market tightens
Aramco also raised the prices of all grades of products for northwest Europe and the Mediterranean region. Prices for U.S. customers remained unchanged for the second consecutive month.
Due to the sanctions of the United States and Europe, the crude oil from Russia decreased and the market tightened. In addition, Asia's economy began to enter a period of activity.
OPEC + agreed on Thursday to accelerate production. The 23 nation cartel led by Saudi Arabia and Russia said that it would increase 648000 barrels of supply to the market every day in July and August, about 50% more than the increase in production in recent months.
Nevertheless, most analysts said that the group was unlikely to achieve its goals because many member states, even outside Russia, were trying to increase production. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are about the only OPEC + countries with large idle capacity. More than 60% of Saudi Arabia's crude oil is exported to Asia.
The m25 x 1.5 industry background
industry background Wire and cable are widely used in all departments of the national economy, which is the fundamental guarantee for the regular operation of the modern economy and society. The development level of the wire and cable industry is also a symbol and epitome of a country's manufacturing level. Europe, America and Japan, such as developed countries, early industrialization at the end of the 20th century, have formed a mature cable industry chain . Contributed to most of the global m25 x 1.5 capacity and demand at that time, still occupied an important position in the worldwide supply and marketing, leading the industry's development and monopolizing the global high-end market.
1. The slowing growth of global m25 x 1.5 demand has accelerated under the epidemic situation
According to the use scenario, the commonly used international m25 x 1.5 divide into two categories indoors and outdoor. Outdoor m25 x 1.5 due to wind and snow and environmental climate, working conditions, so its structure is more complex. Indoor m25 x 1.5 working conditions are better and do not need a waterproof device. The cable core can directly connect with equipment. At present, indoor and outdoor m25 x 1.5 for 10KV and below and outdoor cables sometimes use metal m25 x 1.5 . According to data released by CRU, in 2021, global demand for metal m25 x 1.5 (conductor weight) slowed significantly due to weak demand in China, with 19 million tons in 2021, up nearly 1% year on year. CRU reported in December 2022 that the global market for m25 x 1.5 except in China would shrink by almost double digits in 2021 due to the impact of the pandemic.While market demand is recovering, early weakness will drive double-digit declines in multiple regions in 2021. As a result, the global need for insulated metal m25 x 1.5 will shrink by about 5% -6% yearly. According to preliminary estimates, the global demand for metal-insulated wires and cables will fall to 17.86 million tons in 2022.
2. The outbreak has led to lower demand for m25 x 1.5 , and The size of the global market is gradually shrinking
The wire and cable market size are above 20 billion dollars as one of the most important manufacturing industries globally. From 2018 to 2021, the market size of the global wire and cable industry generally showed a trend of fluctuation. According to the data released by CRU, the market size of the international metal cable industry was $161 billion in 2019.Up slightly to $172 billion in 2020. The global market size fell slightly to $164 billion in 2021 due to falling demand in China. According to preliminary estimates, the global metal m25 x 1.5 market in 2022 was affected by the epidemic, shrinking demand, with market size of $152 billion.
3. The market share of m25 x 1.5 in the Asia-Pacific region gradually expanded, and the other areas began to shrink
In recent years, the economic growth of emerging countries and other Asian countries has been fast. The production focus of the world wire and cable production has shifted to Asia, which has driven the rapid development of the wire and cable industry in China, Vietnam, the Philippines and Egypt in the Middle East.According to the report released by the CRU, the outbreak in 2021 led to different effects on the world's other parts except for China. Combined with multiple market data, we summarize the overall development of the power cable industry in the global scope. Manifested by the rapid rise in Asia, the slight decline in America, and the unstable growth in Europe in recent years, which is greatly affected by economic and political factors. The Asia-Pacific region accounts for about 49% of global consumption, while Europe and the Americas account for 15% and 10%.
4. The m25 x 1.5 market in Europe, America and Japan is relatively mature, with a high concentration degree
After years of developing the wire and cable industry in developed countries, especially in the face of fluctuations in raw material prices, small enterprises gradually withdrew from the market, and the industrial concentration increased significantly. The top 10 American cable manufacturers (GM, Best, Corning, South, etc.) occupy about 70% of the market share. Seven Japanese cable enterprises (such as Wuhe, Sumitomo, Tengcang, Hitachi, Showa, etc.) account for more than 65% of the market share. Five French cable enterprises (Nexan, etc.) occupy the French market turnover, occupying more than 90% of the French market share. And China's entire wire and cable industry concentration is deficient. CR10 is 17.7%.
5. Emerging markets in m25 x 1.5 have increased significantly
In 2021, the global m25 x 1.5 market was in turmoil due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As the global economy recovers, China invests in new energy and infrastructure construction, and the global m25 x 1.5 market is expected to recover in 2021. The global metal m25 x 1.5 market will rebound to $180 billion in 2022.However, in the medium term, the global wire and cable industry will return to healthy growth, driven by government and private investment, after the end of COVID-19 but slowing slightly from the previous five years. Among them, represented by Africa and Southeast Asia, the rapid development of emerging market economies will accelerate their construction, infrastructure, utilities, and industrial development activities. These activities will provide the substantial upward potential for emerging market wire and cable demand. Emerging market demand growth will continue to support the recovery and growth of global demand.
According to the CRU forecast, after 2023, the international wire and cable industry market demand will recover to the level of 2019. The international wire and cable market is expected to expand at an annual growth rate of 5% from 2022 to 2026. The global m25 x 1.5 industry market will reach $230 billion in 2026.
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